Wall Street’s appointment with the Federal Reserve and investors believe that the central bank may be more accommodative rates on Wednesday, following its monetary policy meeting two days, especially after the latest statements of the ECB.
The S & P 500 has lost up to 9% this year, reflecting the fears born of the economic slowdown in China, the fall in oil prices and the statements of the Vice-Fed Chairman Stanley Fischer in which he said he expected four rate hikes this year.
But the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi, said Thursday that the financial market turmoil and concerns over emerging markets lead the central bank to review its monetary policy in March, fueling hopes of new support measures.
“We think the message of the Federal Reserve will remain measured and that the four rate hikes outlined are not feasible, so we think it is positive” for the stock market, said Ken Polcari (O’Neil Securities).
The Exchange will also count in the coming week with a “season” of the results of companies that are now in full swing and will verify whether the forecasts in this regard are too pessimistic or not.
It will be for investors to verify that the strong dollar has penalized heavyweight of the rating such as Boeing, McDonald’s, 3M or United Technologies, which are also major exporters.
Apple, the largest capitalized Wall Street will also be closely watched to see if iPhone sales are bunched together, raise concerns as forecasts of some of its suppliers.
Peter Kenny (Kenny & Co), it is not so much the results themselves which will import the outlook delivered by businesses. “The outlook is significantly more important in relation to the question of whether the United States is spared by the international storm,” he explains.
Companies like Halliburton and Hess will yield the first evidence of the damage to the energy sector. According to data from Thomson Reuters, the benefits of this sector have fallen by 73.3% in the fourth quarter 2015.
If we add the natural resource sectors, finance and high tech, we do not expect Wall Street to return to profit growth before the second half.
However, the net profit growth expected for the second half is done will require that consumer spending have increased and the dollar has stabilized, observes Robert Pavlik (Boston Private Wealth).
The first estimate of fourth quarter GDP will close on Friday a week already heavy.
The estimate of a 0.8% growth confirm the view that the US economy slowed in the fourth quarter and it is unlikely that investors react to a real figure that would comply or remain close to this estimate .